Tinubu, Wike, Fubara And Rivers Crisis, Tunde Abatan

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Tunde Abatan

Tinubu, Wike, Fubara And Rivers Crisis, Tunde Abatan

 

There is a saying in Yoruba ….”. Agbalagba ki wa loja, ki ori omo tuntun wo”, meaning, when elders are in the Market, the head of the child must be placed properly.

For women who are used to strapping their baby on their back, it is those behind her that could Notice if the baby’s head is not placed properly and if it is so, they draw the attention of the mother since the baby cannot talk.

There is also a saying …, Agba ko si ni Ilu, Ilu baje, Baale ile ku Ile dahoro meaning when Elders are no more in town, the town becomes a ghost of its glorious past.

Elder statesman, Chief Olabode George, in spite of his being a politician and member of the leading opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, must have had the above saying in his mind when he   drew the attention of both President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and elders of his party, the PDP, to intervene in the prolonged power tussle in River’s state which remote causes could be traced to struggle for power between Former governor Nyesom Wike and Siminalayi Fubara, incumbent Governor.

They were obviously struggling for control of states political structure just as it happened in the first Republic when the duo of the late Chief Ladoke Akinola, Premier of the Region and his predecessor, Obafemi Awolowo were struggling for control of then Action Group, AG and the region, barely two years after Awo left the region and emerged opposition leader at the centre.

The distinction George fails to draw is that while Akinola wanted to dine with the Tafawa Balewa -led Northern People’s Congress, NPC and carry   along the region with him, Awolowo, the then Leader of the party and his supporters think otherwise.

They did so because they see themselves as a party of different ideology and as the political party which may take over power at the centre in the near future.

The ensuing Crisis led to the suspension of Akintola during the 1962 Jos national convention of the AG for what the party’s leadership described as Anti -Party activities.

It was there and then that the battle line for the control of the Western Region was drawn between the incumbent Premier and his predecessor.

It is also important to point out the fact that the seed of the deep polarisation of Yoruba political followership between the progressives and conservatives was sown during this period and the followership in a way subsists till now.

The difference in the scenario then and now is that unlike Awo who went to the centre to be leader of opposition, Wike, Fubara’s predecessor is winning and dinning with Bola Tinubu as a serving Minister.

He also wanted to keep his anointed successor Fubara and his PDP as a bargaining chip to strengthen and negotiate his political future with Tinubu and his All-Progressives Congress, APC-the party he and four other PDP rebels helped to power at the centre in 2023.

But early in the day of his government, Fubara showed his hands that he wouldn’t want to be a puppet but his own man contrary to Wike’s political calculations.

Wike like Akintola wanted to eat his cake and have it while Awolowo who remained as Leader of the Action Group also wanted to remain the boss in Western region by subterfuge and holding the region as his launching pad to Federal Power in the terms of his being the leader of opposition party.

Yes, like George recalled the power struggle in Western region set in motion crisis which led to the collapse of the First Republic, it also changed the course of Nigeria’s political history.

The difference in the unfolding political scenario is that both Wike and Tinubu wanted to change the political behaviour and alignment of the people of Rivers for better while Fubara also wanted to become a new political force nay his own godfather in Rivers and also help the opposition, PDP, to retain its control of Rivers and by extension South South region politics which George maintained belong to PDP.

Fubara’s stranglehold on Rivers State early in the party and not long after he took power in 2023 also has the unseen hands of PDP leaders like Abubakar Atiku and other stakeholders who   felt, Fubara can help them undo what Wike did by making River’s people vote Tinubu during last year’s presidential election.

This is where Fubara’s interest albeit political survival has sympathy in PDP elders like George.

But then, the factitious nature of Elders of the party who wanted Atiku to remove his Lordship over the party portend another obstacle for Fubara.

This makes Georges cry on Elders to intervene rather difficult to attain given their divergence of interest and the attendant schism in the PDP which Atiku’s ambition has not helped.

But then, the political maneuvering of Tinubu especially his interest in retaining Wike’s support towards his re- election in 2027 is also a defining factor in the unfolding Power game in Rivers.

This may raise the difficulty in Tinubu heeding the counsel of George for purely political maximization and gains. Afterall, politics is about Power and interest

The controversial execution of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway- easily the biggest project in the country in recent years and the apparent infrastructural benefit derivable by the South South region may be Tinubu’s double- edge sword to rein in the people of the region to his party and electoral support.

It also sorts of strengthen Wike’s political capital being the strongest political office holder from the region in Tinubu’s government.

His performance in the Federal Capital Territory, CT- a position reserved for the North, with its capacity to dispense political favour back home will definitely strengthen his influence on the region’s politics.

Besides, George’s alarm may also not sound a big threat enough given Tinubu’s allocation of Oil and Gas portfolio and positions to Heineken Lokpobiri and other strategic Niger Delta Development Corporation, NCDC positions to others from the region.

This decision comes with loyalty to him and his political agenda to retain foothold in the region, traditionally a PDP stronghold.

The people are now obviously divided between staying in local politics and embracing federal position with its perks of office and influence.

But in spite of apparent weaknesses of Fubara’s local structure, his wilful destruction of institutions of governance to remain in power is farfetched and akin to pulling down the roof on his own head not minding the collateral damage inflicted on the state institutions.

This situation makes Fubara like the proverbial drunk in the Chinese shop.

You have to separate him or push him out carefully before doing much damage to himself and the shop.

For a Governor who pulled down the state house of Assembly complex in December last year sitting need for renovation, he can still go a long way to do other bigger damage to make himself difficult to remove.

Though Joseph Johnson, his then information commissioner said the reason is to renovate the complex, you wonder why the suddenness in the action.

That this is coming few months after he attained power is strange and points to a capacity to rein in more damage to himself and the system.

Now, more dangerous is that the division in the state house of Assembly over impeachment threat coupled with signals to pull down the roof on recalcitrant assembly men poised to remove him is also another desperate move by Fubara to compound the state’s politics.

In other words, Fubara, is determined to destroy all institutions of governance except himself.

Fubara’s desperate game plan is also akin to an adage which says,”Eniyan ti o titori pe oun ng lo si Ede to ba Odede je,to ba kuro ni Ede,Odede lo maa pada si…meaning he who destroys his home because he is embarking on a journey will return to meet the ruins of his home…that is if there is anything left after the destruction.

However, given that far reaching implication of instability likely to happen should in case there is a conflagration in River’s state -which reality is quite obvious except something drastic is done to bring the two warring parties together the days ahead are full of challenges.

The casualties of political haemorrhage likely as a result of the battle for the soul of Rivers state, are not likely to be limited to emotional casualties of office and powerful losers, but like in John Pepper Clarks poem in Nigeria’s Civil War, emotional casualties, then included the stay at homes, the poor, weak and innocent citizens struggling to survive Nigeria’s suffocating economic environment.

It is also not impossible that River’s implosion may ignite the sleeping dog in the Niger Delta militants who may be recruited by external forces to disrupt economic activities in the region with its implication on production of Nigeria’s daily crude already far below OPEC allocated quota.

While, it is also incumbent on President Tinubu to play a statesman role like he did when the. conflict started last year, the PDP and other concerned stakeholders also have to set politics aside and bring the warring parties to jaw, jaw…. before the unexpected happens.

A stich it time, saves Nine