Wike vs APC Governors: The Permutations Ahead Of 2031 Polls
By Kazeem Akintunde
In Politics, there are no permanent friends. What we have, especially in our clime, is the interest of individuals who have turned partisan politics into a full-time job and their life’s ambition. The political interest that took former Governor of Rivers State and member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to pick up a ministerial appointment in a government controlled by the All Progressive Congress (APC) is about to be unraveled. Those interests are gradually becoming known to many in the APC and its members are no longer comfortable with the antics. From all indications, today’s friends may soon be tomorrow’s sworn enemies.
Nigeria’s brand of politics has its own distinct flavour. While the masses are looking forward to next year’s general election with the belief that they would use their ballot to vote for contenders who have their interests at heart, professional politicians are already positioning themselves ahead of the 2031 electoral contests.
If there is one politician who has the sagacity to think far ahead of others aside President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, it would be his now comrade in politics, Nyesom Wike. The man eats, sleeps, and talks politics. He thinks far ahead of many of his contemporaries and the political structures he built whilst at the helm of affairs in Rivers State as Governor, his well-rehearsed game-plan is being gradually spread to several other states across the country. The end goal – a Vice-presidential ticket, or even a shot at the presidency in 2031.
Wike taught the PDP a bitter lesson in politics in 2022, when the party threw open its presidential ticket to all members instead of zoning it to the South. If the party had done so, the PDP would have respected and abided by the ‘gentleman agreement’ whereby power rotates between the North and the South every eight years. President Muhammadu Buhari, a Northerner, was about completing his eight-year tenure in office under the banner of the APC and here came another Northerner, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, hell-bent on becoming the nation’s President under the PDP. Even though he got the ticket, he never smelled the office – no thanks to Wike, who, alongside four other PDP Governors from the South, ensured that he lost the presidency to the incumbent, President Bola Tinubu of the APC.
Arguably, that singular act was the beginning of the end for the PDP which has not fully recovered from the blow. For his tenacity to decimate his own political party, Wike was compensated with the position of FCT Minister under the Tinubu-led APC government. To the President and even some APC governors, Wike is a saint that can do no wrong. To consolidate his loyalty to the President with the approach of the 2027 general election, Wike has formed what he termed a ‘Rainbow Coalition’ through which he plans to work for the re-election of President Tinubu of the APC and as well position his ‘boys’ into different offices, on the banner of the PDP across the country.
Like you and I, Wike has just one vote in any election. But he has promised to ‘deliver’ Rivers State as well as the FCT to President Tinubu. He has boasted of having a very formidable structure on ground in both Rivers state and the FCT that would deliver the votes to the President. Indeed, Wike is a powerful man.
In Rivers State, he ensured that the incumbent governor, Siminalayi Fubara is neither on the ballot paper of the APC nor the PDP. For an incumbent governor not to be on the ballot to seek re-election for another four-year tenure speaks volumes about the enormous influence that Wike wields in the state. His decision is what has brought about a semblance of peace to the state as controller of both the APC and PDP structures there. He anointed those that emerged victorious in both parties’ governorship primaries. When the time is ripe, he would give a directive on who would occupy the Brick House Government House between the duo of Kingsley Chinda of the APC and Sam Ejekwu of the PDP. Powerful man.
I wish him luck on his mission to deliver the Presidency again to Tinubu. However, it must be said that Wike is not just contented with being the ‘godfather’ in his two strongholds of Rivers State and the FCT, as he seems ready to spread his tentacles across the country this time around. Not to blame him, because that was what Tinubu himself did after his eight-year tenure in Lagos State as Governor. He picked loyal men and women who served him as Commissioners and ensured that they became Governors of some of the South West states. For instance, Rauf Aregbesola, his Commissioner for Works, became a Governor in Osun State. Another trusted ally, Kayode Fayemi, became Governor of Ekiti State, while his cousin, Gboyega Oyetola, became a Governor in Osun State.
Wike has dusted up that same hand book and he is set to install his trusted allies as Governors across the country. This is where his political interest counters that of many state governors under the APC, hence the current hullabaloo. In Imo State for example, Wike is positioning one of his trusted allies, Samuel Anyanwu, to take over from Governor Hope Uzodimma next year. Anyanwu was the National Secretary of the PDP that was used to hold down the party for Tinubu during the 2023 election. Now recognised as the authentic governorship candidate of the PDP in Imo State, Uzodimma is not comfortable with the move and the situation has set the duo on a collision course.
Although his tenure as governor of Imo State won’t lapse until January 15, 2028, Uzodimma may resign once he is elected as Senator representing Imo West senatorial zone for him to be sworn into the upper legislative chamber by June next year. Uzodimma’s ambition is to become the next Senate President once the position is zoned to the South East. The remaining tenure of his governorship would be completed by the Deputy Governor, Chinyere Ekomaru, or any other place holder. In Nigerian politics, anything can happen.
Apart from that, Uzodimma also has his eyes set on becoming the Vice President come 2031 by which time power is expected to have shifted back to the North and the APC is most likely to abide by that agreement. The permutation is that the party would pick its Vice President either from the South South or South East zone of the country. Talk about Nigerian politicians and their tall ambitions!
And so, with the likes of Uzodimma, Wike, Adams Oshiomhole, Orji Uzor Kalu, Charles Soludo, Peter Mbah, and a host of others already eyeing the slot, Wike is not restricting his influence to the South South and South East zones alone. He is cultivating and nurturing friendships across the country. In the North Central, Wike has resolved the differences he had with former Senate President, Bukola Saraki, and the duo are working tirelessly to hijack the state from the APC.
That is probably why Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq of Kwara State has never hidden his disdain for Wike. Some APC members that contested for the governorship ticket under the APC and lost have left the party and found a ‘safe haven’ in the PDP. When APC governors met last week, they told Wike point-blank to either join the APC fully or stay away from them completely as they would have nothing to do with his ‘Rainbow Coalition’.
Wike has also fired back that although the APC governors were smart to have quickly read the game plan, he described them as being politically lazy, adding that he never promised them that he would work for their success at the state level during next year’s election.
Both sides have vowed to fight to the finish, and many stakeholders in the party are already calling on President Tinubu to douse the tension, as both Wike and the governors are very relevant to his 2027 re-election bid. Although there are speculations that the President may invite some of the gladiators to France to resolve the crisis, I do not see Tinubu siding with either party. Both Wike and the APC governors are very crucial to his re-election and the Tinubu that I know has implicit confidence in Wike. Tinubu is also very flexible politically. He sees beyond party platforms, which is why he has always cultivated both direct and indirect alliances beyond his own political party since he came to national prominence in 1999. The fact that Tinubu stood with Wike against Fubara should be a pointer to the premium he attaches to Wike’s political value.
What I expect some of the governors who have issues with Wike to do is to quietly counteract his influence in their states, because by virtue of being the leader of the PDP, you can’t wish away the reality that he will have influence in many states where PDP stands a chance to win like in Kwara. After the elections and the governors are able to defeat him and his allies, they can then move to strategically whittle his political wings.
Tinubu needs Wike’s support for now and I don’t see him taking sides with the APC governors. What he could do is to give Wike the El-rufai treatment, but that can only happen after the 2027 general election has been won and another four-year tenure is securely in the bag. Even at that, I believe that Tinubu would still work with Wike beyond 2027 owing to his exceptional performance as the FCT minister in the last three and half years.
My biggest concern, however, is that many Nigerians place their hopes on these set of politicians and are willing to die for their continuous relevance for peanuts. Politicians that are enemies today may become best of friends tomorrow once their political interests align. Their interests are all that matters to them. Whilst citizens are still only thinking of the 2027 general elections, our strategic and forward-thinking, personal-interest-driven politicians are already thinking about the 2031 general elections!
The sooner Nigerians accept that our interests are only protected by God and that our lives are more precious than any individual’s interest, the better for us. Our politicians are simply a selfish set of human beings. My sincere advice is that while they fight each other over their selfish political interests, just get your popcorn and chilled drinks and let’s be ready to enjoy the show.
See you next week.
