Osun Decides 2022: Of Ambition Fulfilled And Ambition Threatened
By Tunde Abatan
“The emergence of Senator Adeleke of the People’s Democratic Party as governor of Osun state has demonstrated the power of resilience and superior power of the electorate in choosing their leaders. It has also emphasized the need for leaders to pursue genuine reconciliation in the interest of all aggrieved parties, not the leadership alone”
As politics is, election is also a declaration of war by other means. In other words, election is a test of might and superiority brought into fore during election by the different contending forces and parties.
For Senator Ademola Adeleke, Saturday July 16, was a day in which victory came his way after pursuing his ambition since 2018 to rule his native Osun state.
Thus, on that day, his burning ambition put on hold by his loss four years ago to now incumbent Governor Gboyega Oyetola by 255,023 to Gboyega of All Progressives Congress, APC,255,505 votes representing a margin of just 482 votes in a controversial re- run election.
Last Saturday, Adelekes doggedness in spite of his individual failings, paid as he defeated his arch rival and incumbent Governor by 403,371 to 375,027 votes which represents a difference of 28,344 votes to clinch his much coveted trophy.
It means that in spite of Oyetolas incumbency, Adeleke has increased his popularity by increasing his superiority gap and polling more than he did four years ago.
He thus defeated same incumbent who defeated him four years ago by a wider margin in spite of the formers power of incumbency .
By this victory, Adeleke has broken the twelve years hold on power in that state by the APC and make it the strongest opposition party in the state.
Since 1999 return to democracy both parties have ruled the state among themselves.
What a result what a victory.
Saturdays victory of Adeleke was in many ways a repeat of history as he became the third person in his expanded political family bequeathed by his late father, Chief Raji Ayoola Adeleke,a business man and parliamentarian of the second republic, to win election to the Senate.
In another breadth, Adelekes victory also made him the second governor to be produced by this influential political dynasty from Ede, an ancient town in Osun state.
The Adeleke dynasty it will be recalled started it’s foray into politics in 1979 as Chief Ayoola became a Senator in the second Republic.
What a life, what a victory.
As Senator, Adeleke often regarded as less educationally endowed in the extended family of successful business men, struggled in vain to retain the Senate seat he won in 2015 in a gale of controversy which involved his secondary school certificate, before he threw his hat into the governorship ring in 2018.
The rest is history.
Today, as someone considered to be more of a socialite and a drawback in education, he has scaled the inferiority ladder and fulfilled his life ambition.
It is instructive that he did so in spite of his social reckoning in a state people by the high and mighty in academy, bureaucracy and business world.
By his background he is not deemed ‘qualified’ for the job but then he has beaten protocol of life to get his prize. Such is life with men considered an underdog!
Ironically, Adelekes ambition became a reality when the sun literally set for Oyetola, considered a shrewd and prudent chief executive who ruled the state for the past four years.
He is considered as one who has pulled the state back from level of indebtedness it was exposed to by previous regimes.
What an election what a result !
Democracy has its way of lifting the obscure and crowning the less fancied.
Oyetola neither had a record of dispute with workers and retirees in a state largely people by peasants and civil servants safe for the humongous arrears of pension and gratuities he inherited.
However, the setting of Oyetolas sun in Osun politics has resonated far more than the two combatants as Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, often considered as god father of Osun politics on the last twelve years by the defeat , got a hint of direct threat to his ambition to rule the nation in 2023.
This is because Osun apart from being a Yoruba state, is considered as his vassal state.
In other words, Osuns loss to PDP is a minus and set back for Tinubu.
It has reduced his crave to increase his chance of pulling the largest traditional block vote, from the region known for supporting it’s own.
It did same for the late sage Chief Obafemi Awolowo for five decades.
Besides, as the only Yoruba in the presidential race next year his hopes are high.
Yes, he may still get sizeable chunk of his votes from the six South West states, but despite that a vote is as important to a politician as anything.
He could do more.
But what could be responsible for Oyetolas inability to root Adeleke as promised in his various campaigns and the media.
By so doing, he would have increased the voting strength of his uncle and benefactor during next year’s election.
One of the remote causes of Oyetolas defeat is located in the unending rift within the APC political family in Osun state occasioned by Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesolas fall out with Tinubu, his political godfather.
Hard as the political family tried ,the division was further accentuated by the party primaries which returned Oyetola against Aregbesolas Moshood Adeoti.
Considered as an ‘ingrate’ for fighting against the interest of his benefactor, the feud was ‘settled’ .
But from recent events, it was actually swept under the carpet .
Aregbesola has by this victory of Adeleke proved the potency of his strength.
From all indications, it is apparent that though the structure of APC from ward to state level is in Oyetolas pocket, the soul and mass followership of the party by the people is inside Oranyan- Aregbesolas political groups, pocket.
And from yesterday’s results, Aregbesola and his group showed that you can stay in a house and destroy from inside .
It also shows that there was indeed no genuine reconciliation in the state branch of APC.
Oyetola merely has the party but the people belong elsewhere.
Besides, the divided house, the state of the nations economy with mass poverty in all parts of the country is also a potential weapon capitalized by the PDP which never had it hard to convince the electorate to leave the APC rickety boat which has failed to improve their lives this past seven years.
What is more, like most states in the South West, Osun, an agrarian state, residents are also direct victims of rampaging foreign Fulani herdsmen and bandits which rendered farming as dangerous a vocation as Mining.
The hitherto lucrative trade is now taken over by aliens who rob the state resources with gusto.
In other words, most of those who pitted their camp with Adeleke voted not only for PDP but against Buharis non performance with mass poverty evident in all nooks and crannies of the country.
The loss of Osun state to PDP has also reduced the number of states controlled by APC to four in the South West.
Strangely, Oyo another PDP state is Osuns neighbouring state and future collaboration to resist APC could not be ruled out.
However, giving the history of voting in presidential election in SW, the emergence of Adeleke may not have any far reaching effect of where the Yoruba people of this state will vote.
Since Tinubu is the only Yoruba in the race for Presidency which is now reduced to ethnic and religious battle, ability of Abubakar Atiku or Peter Obi of PDP and Labour party, LP, respectively to significantly affect Tinubus chances are remote.
With Tinubus penchant for reconciliation with hitherto foes, getting Osun his ‘home’ state on his back may not be difficult.
However, in spite of Osun being people by more Islamic adherents than most of South West states, the raging issue of Muslim-Muslim ticket may also be one of the immediate volte face by Osun electorate… considered as one of the politically sophisticated state in SW.in spite of it’s religious piety.
It will be recalled, Osun state broke the rank with other states in 2011 and voted Nuhu Ribadu instead of Goodluck Jonathan ,Tinubus backing for the latter against his party’s candidate not withstanding.
The issue of returning a Fulani to power in any of the Yoruba in Nigeria by voting for such a candidate in any of the South West states is not an easy task more so when one of their son is contesting .
This resentment against a Northern candidate is also informed by the nepostic and ethnic colouration of Buharis seven years rule despite SW strong backing for him to become President after three failed attempts.
That the Presidential election is still seven months away, Oyetolas defeat will give Tinubu enough room to plan, consult, build more bridges, strategize and pursue genuine reconciliation to win back the people of the state.
He needed this to shore up his political ambition clearly under threat as a result of his muslim-muslim choice amidst open threat by people of other faith especially Christians.
But with only 4 out of the 26 members of the state house of assembly, it won’t be all rosy for Adeleke who has to bend backward to reach accommodation with the aggrieved house of assembly members on getting approval for running the state.
For Governor Oyetola, it is time for him to reach out and rebuild the fractured state branch of the APC which lack of Unity account for part of why he failed to secure a second term in spite of his commendable records of performance in office.
Doing less is injurious to his future political relevance in the state.
