Nigeria As A Cancer Patient, By Kazeem Akintunde
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in his October 1 Independence Day address to Nigerians, likened Nigeria’s economic situation to that of a cancer patient who had been permanently placed on morphine by previous administrations.
These were the exact words of Mr. President: “Nigeria was like a sick patient who receives the terrible news that he has cancer. His doctor explains that the treatment will be difficult and painful, but that it offers a strong prospect of recovery. The patient has a choice. He can begin treatment, endure its discomfort, and fight the disease. Or he can ask only for morphine, dull the pain, and leave the cancer to spread.
“For too long, Nigeria’s leaders chose morphine, while praying for a miracle that never came. They focused on symptoms while allowing the disease to take hold deep within the fabric of our society. We spent enormous sums sustaining inefficient arrangements that were never intended to last. We hid from difficult truths and passed the consequences from one generation to the next. When this administration assumed office, we resolved to do things differently. We chose to excise the cancer. The reforms that followed were difficult. The side effects were real. Yet, we must never confuse the medicine with the disease. Our reforms did not create the weaknesses in our economy. They confronted them. Now, as certain influential but regressive voices would have us abandon the treatment and return ourselves to the abuse of addictive subsidies, we must resist their siren song. We must remember why we began this journey and how far we have already come.
“Three and a half years later, the evidence that Nigeria’s economic outlook has improved is undeniable. Our economy has grown by over four per cent this year. Both oil and non-oil sectors have contributed to the renewed period of stable growth.”
The President’s speech writer did a fantastic job. In a few sentences, he brought to the fore, the real issues confronting Nigerians using the cancer patient’s analogy to a perfect crescendo. But let us examine the issues raised one after the other.
Cancer is still a very deadly disease in this part of the world. In most advanced countries where science and technology have been deployed in the battle against cancer, it can no longer be described as a death sentence. In Nigeria, roughly 90,795 Nigerians die annually from cancers (IARC/GLOBOCAN Data) and 152,000 new cases recorded yearly, yielding a very high mortality-to-incidence ratio where over 70 per cent of cases are presented at late stages. For example, breast cancer mortality/fatality rates are more than 50 per cent, and over 70 per cent of patients present at advanced/metastatic stages.
In most of the advanced countries in Europe and America, there are lower mortality ratios due to early screening, widespread awareness, and functional infrastructure. USA’s breast cancer fatality/mortality rate is significantly lower, at around 19 per cent. This is due to the availability of comprehensive universal or well-funded health insurance, robust diagnostic/screening pipelines (mammograms, PSA tests, genetic screening), and abundant radiotherapy/chemotherapy infrastructure.
The reverse is the case in Nigeria, where there are severe infrastructural gaps (limited functional radiotherapy/diagnostic machines), heavy out-of-pocket spending, weak or missing sub-national cancer control plans in most states, and late presentations at medical facilities, driven by awareness gaps and stigma.
Now, to the analogy. Agreed that we were living on borrowed time, going by the huge amount of money that was channeled into the payments of petrol subsidy by previous administrations, those payments were not the real challenge, but the unbridled corruption that was allowed to germinate and fester in the process. A company that imported only 10,000 litres of fuel cooked the books with the support of several pen robbers in and out of government, got paid for 30,000 litres, and all corrupt individuals involved smiled to the banks.
Again, we could not properly police our borders, and nearly 50 per cent of the subsidised fuel found their way into neighbouring countries. In essence, the government failed to curb the corruption in the system and ineffectively police our borders, but took the easy way out by completely washing its hands off the whole mess, passing the burden on the citizens.
This is clearly wrong. Unfortunately, Nigerians have found themselves in a mess that would take several years to wriggle our way out of. On May 29, 2023, when the Tinubu administration came on board, the price of fuel in Nigeria was roughly between N189 to N197 per litre before jumping to over N500 per litre later same day following the new President’s announcement of subsidy removal at his inauguration.
Compounded by external factors such as the senseless war between the United States of America (USA) and Israel against Iran, the price of fuel has reached an all-time high of N1,400. With the attendant high cost of transportation and cost of living, many Nigerians are now screaming blue murder.
It is quite sad that majority of the population of a fuel producing nation have been pushed into the poverty quagmire, with 133 million Nigerians (about 63 per cent of the population) now classified as multi-dimensionally poor. That figure was reported by our government-owned National Bureau of Statistics. In fact, recent estimates and reports suggest that the figure may be over 140 to 150 million Nigerians amid ongoing economic pressures on most families.
While previous administrations placed Nigeria’s economic cancer on morphine in a bid to dull the pain, Tinubu’s treatment regimen may eventually kill the patient if nothing is done quickly to revive the patient that has now slipped into a state of coma.
With the average fuel price in Nigeria currently hovering around N1,400 per litre, the N70,000 minimum wage can only buy approximately 50 litres of petrol today. That fuel would not take any worker to the office and back home for more than a week. How Nigerians survive is still a mystery to many. Many workers have turned their places of work into temporary shelters and only go home on Friday evenings to be with their families for the weekend. Feeding has been reduced to once daily, and basically consists of what one can afford. Focus is no longer on a balanced diet that the body needs to function optimally.
The World Health Organisation (WHO), just last week, stated that the average life expectancy in the world has risen to 73 years, but for those of us in this part of the world, the number shrunk to less than 55 years. Hunger, anger, and hopelessness have all combined to make life short, brutish, and nasty for most Nigerians. Nigeria in the early 1960s and 1970s was classified as a middle-income economy, but we are now known and addressed as the poverty capital in the world since 2018, except for occasional reversals.
In his October 1 broadcast, President Tinubu insisted that tackling the cancer growing on Nigeria was the best way to go. A dose of morphine, in his words, would only dull the pain. Now that the patient is on life support, it is hoped that his treatments would work. A baby born 66 years ago can no longer be described as a toddler. After 66 years as a sovereign nation, Nigeria should by now, be on the path to greatness, but the pain and anguish of most Nigerians over the worsening state of the nation persists and is heightened day by day.
We can begin our growth trajectory by creating an enabling environment for the manufacturing sector to grow. This would allow for massive job creation. ‘The devil finds work for idle hands.’ That has been known since the dawn of history. Nigerian secondary and tertiary institutions churn out nearly half a million graduates annually. Most of them, including those who graduated with First Class degrees, finish their National Youth Service (NYSC) scheme without prospects of gainful employment, ending up jobless for years, and turning their hopes into nightmares in the struggle for survival. For how long are we going to keep dashing the hope of the youths whom we have taught that education is the key?
And while we leave them to their fate, international crime syndicates are waiting to employ them. It has become a painful reality that more Nigerian youths than ever before are now employed in cybercrimes – yahoo, romance scams, trans-national money laundering – both at home and abroad. Drug trafficking, Ponzi schemes, and other forms of internet-aided felonies have proliferated the minds of our idle youths beyond anybody’s imagination. Law enforcement is lagging behind in many respects if the supposed enforcers themselves are not part and parcel of the syndicate.
Technically, Nigeria, presently, is not at war with any nation but itself. When citizens don’t feel safe in their own land, nothing but desperate crime and criminality will reign. Feeling the pulse of our failing nation, bandits and terrorists have taken full reign – making nearly four million people to leave their homes to find shelter in Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps. Aside the huge numbers of Nigerians in IDP camps, many others have been killed senselessly. Before 2013, seldom were 30 Nigerians massacred in one day. And this is not to say that these are not already frightening figures, but nowadays, it is a good day for the nation if less than 50 people were killed, abducted, maimed, or kidnapped by hoodlums in various categories. Before 2010, the Nigerian state had a near monopoly of the use of lethal violence. Not anymore. Today, so many groups compete with state security forces for control of power. Unfortunately, right before our very eyes, the bandits are succeeding like never before. They keep on recruiting available and jobless hands all over the country to perpetrate terror attacks on citizens with wanton recklessness.
With President Tinubu insisting that there is evidence that Nigeria’s economic outlook has improved and that the economy has grown by four per cent this year alone; that oil theft has reduced and that there has been a substantial fall in inflation; that our foreign reserves have peaked, and that there is a greater stability in the foreign exchange market; and that Nigeria recorded its highest revenue from non-oil exports last year, exceeding $6 billion, Nigerians are wondering why the fantastic figures on paper don’t match the picture.
Are we talking about the same country? Because citizens are not feeling the effects of those figures on their pockets, on their purchasing power, or in their life. Perhaps it is time for Mr. President to have a rethink on those policies that have made life difficult for the people. And the surest and quickest way to do that is through a reduction in the pump price of fuel. How that can be achieved, I do not know, but it can be agreed that this is one commodity that no serious nation allows to be dictated by the vagaries of international politics. There are several ways advanced countries provide relief for their people in difficult times. A sharp reduction in the pump price of fuel would bring immediate relief to the masses as transportation costs will drop, granting a salutary effect on the price of goods and services. The roll out of CNG buses across the country will have little or no effect on transportation cost. The real issue is for the federal government to work at reducing the price of fuel at the pump. Opposition political parties have identified the high cost of fuel as a campaign strategy and receiving favourable responses from the people. A government seeking re-election should device a way of meeting the needs of the masses, even if half-way. But as a fuel-producing country, even half-way looks like failure on the part of the managers of our vast resources. As fuel subsidy continues to trend as we head towards next year’s general elections, President Tinubu should not allow the cancer patient in a coma to die on his operating table.
See you next week.
