Between Yoruba Nation Agitators, SW Governors And IPOB, By Tunde Abatan
With less than two months to the 2023 general elections, the nation especially South West and South East seems to be in a quandary.
They are because when both Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the All Progressives Congress, APC, presidential candidate and leading son of the Yoruba South West in the race, seems to have his eyes and chances set on getting the coveted trophy of being Nigeria’s next President, the malignant tumour of secessionist agitation by its aggrieved kinsmen received a new tonic.
The tonic this time arround is the fresh move by the Professor Banji Akintoye led group to resucutiate the Oduduwa republic clamour which had taken a rest past few months.
What on earth could be behind the fresh impetus to this cancerous intent when their son seems set to get the Presidency.
This time around, politicians, public office holders especially governors in the region led by Governor Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo state are scared stiff.
Although Tinubu – the leading Hope of the South West ‘Awa lokan’ club, has maintained a studied silence but instead focused on getting more supporters from the North and getting the South South represented by Nyesome Wike led G5 to his side, Akeredolu and his group of six governors are worried and desperate.
They are worried because any threat and or disruption by the agitators to the election process would drastically reduce their chance to cart away at least 80% of 18.3 million registered voters in the region and by extension dent their son victory.
Besides,the renewed agitation for secession, in the region they feared could induce fears into the hearts of their symphatisers and supporters from the North who will apparently be scared stiff of another serious move to divide Nigeria similar to the IPOB threat.
This,new development the governors who met in an emergency meeting last week, fear could shift sympathy of the North to Atiku another fellow Northerner.
What on earth is the problem of Yoruba agitators when their son stands a good chance to emerge next President, the governors and other stakeholders seems to be asking?
Perhaps,Akeredolu who issued a stern warning to agitators who have two weeks ago resumed their street protest ,wouldn’t have been worried if they have no reasonable number on their side.
Afterall plurality of Yoruba political thought gives concern to this.
Before the emergence of Tinubu, conflict between Fulani herdsmen,disruption of farmers output,killing of indigenes and mass banditry and kidnapping had reached its zenith.
It this prompted emergence of resurgence led by Sunday Igboho,Yoruba version of Nnamdi Kanus Independent People’s of Biafra,IPOB movement.
This development, inevitably struck bond of unity in Yorubaland and increased number of those who lost confidence in Nigeria.
With support and betrayal from inside elements in the group, Igboho got driven out of Nigeria,his supporters killed and maimed while relative stability returned.
In an interview early last year before he went on exile to join Igboho, Akintoye told this reporter that the 2023 election won’t distract his group from Yoruba agitation.
Is he about to make good it’s promise to disrupt election and ease Yoruba out of Nigeria before the 2023 elections…in fact by December which is a few days away?
This threat is even becoming louder in spite of divisions among the ranks of the Ilana Yoruba movement !.
Is the division within Akintoye’s leadership rank part of South West governors and politicians unspoken move to incapacitate secessionist agitators and pave way for Tinubu’s emergence?
Akeredolu,last week after a meeting with five other governors, promise hell and trial for treason for Yoruba activists who are seen as direct threats to allow Yoruba presidency next year .
Indeed, it is not impossible that part of the SW governors strategy to weaken separatist clamour is an on going move to remove Akintoye by a faction of the Ilana Yoruba movement..is it probable that this is part of the six south west governors agenda to create a stable polity in their region before the election ?.
Beside the ‘awa lokan’ clamour, the governors, three of who are seeking reelection, are also making the move to save their job with Tinubu’s victory.
Who will not?
As chairman of the SW governors forum, Akeredolu, is even sure of support of Governor Seyi Makinde in spite of belonging to leading opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party, PDP.
Makinde who seems to have made it clear to support Tinubu’s presidency against his party’s Atiku Abubakar .
Makinde by his latent action seems to have thrown partisanship aside and joined ” Omo wa ni and Awa lokan” crusade..na our son’s and our own turn .
He will however face another hurdle if probable Tinubu’s victory will not affect his chances as the formula did to Alliance for Democracy, AD, governors of South West in 2003?.
IPOB:
In the South East, the Ohaneze Ndigbo, the leading umbrella group, is also battling along with it’s five Governors to prevail on IPOB and Kanu’s supporters to sheathe their sword, end violence and ‘sit at home’ projects, that has laid it’s economy prostrate and threatening the chance of Labour Party’s, LP, Peter Obi-it’s first Igbo presidential candidate after demise of the late Biafran warlord, Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu, to have significant following in the country.
How would Ohaneze handle clamour for release of Kanu, increased bombing of INEC offices in the region by suspected IPOBIANS against conduct of elections in the region coupled with threat by unrepentant foreign faction of IPOB intent on disrupting elections in SE like their SW counterparts?
How could Obi, though with youth followership outside the zone,able to garner 90% of votes as did late Nanmdi Azikiwe in the second republic to stand a chance to defeat both Tinubu and Atiku.?
Could the South East governors achieve the feat as they are equally divided between clamour for Tinubu and Atiku?.
In spite of block votes expected from South East by Obidients clamour, Ohaneze also have an impediment and equally disturbed by both governors Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia who are neck -deep in their Southerners turn campaign with G5 governors led by Rivers Nyesome Wike.
It is feared that Wile and his group though campaigning for a Southern governor may not look in the way of Ohanezes preference.
This obviously has the propensity to divide South East 11.4 million votes between Obi and Tinubu if they decide to follow Wikes obvious preference.
Ohaneze and Obis supporters also have cause to worry since traditionally SE people are republicans who had since 1959 being in bed with conservative politics of the Northern political ruling class.
In the second republic, though they initially pitched their tent with the Nigeria People’s Party, NPP, of Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe who later went into an accord with the North’s National Party of Nigeria, NPN.
It is on record that the accord later crumbled in 1981.
Now, it all appears Obis Labour could not garner the 90%votes from the regions 11.49 million which is the least among the six regions.
And with Governor Charles Soludo of Anambra’s apparent lack of support for Obi both in his words and action, the task are rather herculean.
Apparently, Ohaneze and Obi has a three corner fight to face in spite of Obis religiosity and moves of appealing to Christians both in the South West and North Central.
Today,he can’t beat his chest that Atiku can’t have a reasonable number of votes from his SE area of strength based on the history of voters behaviour in SE.
As for Atiku,he also had to battle the South who are desirous of preventing another Northerner from succeeding Buhari who has ruled for eight years.
That appears to be his greatest cross since his North alone is not sufficiently cohesive to deliver majority votes to him.
With Boko Haram and banditry gradually being put on check by the re-energised military, the region will be a tough fight between Atiku,a home boy,Tinubu with support by twelve APC governors and the increasing popularity of Obi among North Central states who are groaning under the pains inflicted by Fulani herdsmen and increased banditry ,kidnapping with its threat on security.
Hence,the three leading candidates – Tinubu,Atiku and Obi have individual cross to carry at their homesteads the aggravation of which may deny either of them clear victory and push them into a rerun come February next year.
The nation waits.
