2027: Tinubu Leads Atiku, Obi In Early Forecast- PIG
As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 presidential election, an early political forecast has placed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi.
The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng, Lagos, in its assessment of the country’s current political configuration, projects that Tinubu would win 20 states if the presidential election were held under the prevailing circumstances.
Atiku is projected to win nine states, while Obi is expected to secure eight states, in addition to the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
PIG, however, cautioned that the projection represents a snapshot of the current political landscape and should not be regarded as a prediction of the eventual outcome of the 2027 election.
The group noted that Nigeria’s political environment remained fluid and could change significantly before voters go to the polls.
“If the election were held today, based on the political realities and alignments currently on the ground, the APC and President Tinubu would have the advantage,” PIG stated in its assessment.
“However, this is a projection of the current situation, not a declaration of the eventual result. A lot can happen between now and 2027.”
Tinubu projected to win 20 states
The forecast gives Tinubu a strong position across the South-West, with the president projected to win all six states in the region.
His projected dominance of the zone reflects his longstanding political influence in the South-West, particularly Lagos, where he built much of his political structure before becoming president.
Lagos, according to the forecast, remains firmly in Tinubu’s column.
The projection also places Kano, one of Nigeria’s most populous states and a major electoral battleground, in the president’s column.
A victory in Kano would provide Tinubu with a significant foothold in the North and potentially strengthen his prospects of building a broader national coalition.
PIG said the president’s projected advantage extends beyond his traditional South-West base.
“Tinubu’s strength, as projected, goes beyond the South-West. His ability to secure states outside his traditional stronghold is an indication of the breadth of the APC’s current political structure,” the group said.
The president’s prospects in 2027, however, could depend heavily on how Nigerians assess his administration.
Economic hardship, inflation, unemployment, insecurity, infrastructure and the cost of living are expected to feature prominently in the election campaign.
PIG identified the economy as potentially the biggest variable in the contest.
“The economy remains the biggest variable in this election. If economic conditions improve significantly, it could work in favour of the incumbent. If hardship persists, the opposition will have a powerful campaign issue,” it observed.
Atiku projected to win nine states
For Atiku, PIG projects victories in nine states, with much of his strength concentrated in the northern part of the country.
The former vice president is expected to retain significant support in parts of the North-West and North-East, with Kaduna among the states projected to fall into his column.
Atiku’s long political career, extensive political network and experience in presidential contests remain key assets.
However, PIG said his major challenge would be converting his northern support into a sufficiently broad national coalition.
“Atiku remains a formidable northern political force, but the 2027 contest will require more than regional strength. His ability to make significant inroads into the South will be critical to his prospects,” the group said.
The cost of living, particularly the prices of petrol and transportation, could also feature prominently in Atiku’s campaign.
The former vice president has criticised aspects of the Federal Government’s economic policies and advocated measures aimed at reducing the burden of fuel prices on Nigerians.
PIG noted that if transportation costs and household expenses remain high, the issues could provide the opposition with a potent campaign message.
However, any promise of cheaper petrol could also raise questions about how such a policy would be financed and sustained.
Obi projected to win eight states, FCT
Obi is projected to win eight states, with the FCT also expected to fall into his column.
Edo is among the states projected to go to the Labour Party candidate.
The forecast reflects the political base Obi built during the 2023 presidential election, when he emerged as a major political force, particularly among younger voters and in several southern states.
His political appeal has largely centred on improved economic management, accountability, prudent public spending and more efficient governance.
PIG, however, said Obi’s major challenge would be translating that support into a broader geographical coalition capable of delivering victory at the national level.
“Obi’s support remains significant, particularly among voters demanding political change and a different style of governance. The question is whether that support can be expanded geographically and translated into sufficient state-by-state victories,” it stated.
Obi could also benefit from voter dissatisfaction if economic difficulties persist.
However, his prospects could depend heavily on political alliances, party structures and his ability to expand beyond his established areas of strength.
Alliances could alter projection
PIG identified political realignment as one of the biggest uncertainties surrounding the 2027 election.
Opposition parties have continued to explore possible alliances and coalitions aimed at challenging the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
A possible single opposition candidate, defections, choice of running mates, campaign structures and the emergence of new political movements could significantly alter the current electoral calculations.
“Alliances, defections, candidates, running mates and the performance of the economy can all alter today’s projection,” PIG noted.
Religion, ethnicity and regional identity are also expected to influence political calculations, particularly in the choice of presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
However, the group said these traditional factors would compete with bread-and-butter issues such as security, jobs, inflation, food prices, petrol prices and the general standard of living.
‘Snapshot, not verdict’
The projected figures — Tinubu 20 states, Atiku nine and Obi eight — add up to 37 states, excluding the FCT, which is projected to Obi.
PIG stressed that the figures should not be mistaken for an election result, describing the assessment as a reflection of the current balance of political forces.
“Our projection should be understood as a political snapshot. It reflects the balance of forces as they currently exist. It does not mean the election has already been won or lost,” the group said.
The political landscape is expected to evolve as the major parties consolidate their structures, potential presidential candidates intensify consultations and opposition forces decide whether to contest independently or form alliances.
For Tinubu, the immediate challenge will be to convert incumbency, party structure and projected regional strength into sustained national support.
For Atiku, the task will be to preserve his northern base while expanding his reach into other regions.
For Obi, the challenge will be to transform the momentum of 2023 into a broader national coalition.
For now, however, the PIG forecast places Tinubu ahead with 20 states, followed by Atiku with nine and Obi with eight, while the FCT is projected to Obi.
With the 2027 presidential election still ahead, the political map remains subject to significant change.
