Tinubu, Wike And South-South: A New Paradigm Shift, By Tunde Abatan
There is no doubt that President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is up to new things and will employ different strategies to run his forthcoming government.
Though he came in as a leader who got votes across the broad spectrum of the society, the fact remains that for now his approach even before being sworn in is focused on consolidating new grounds and mobilizing support base from all over the country to stabilize his in-coming government.
One of such move is the attempt to expand his political horizon both for now and in the future.
A pointer to this is the deliberate and conscious move to attract the South-South political zone into the All Progressives Congress, APC which has since the first republic- with the exception of then Midwestern region, has been a party right of the centre.
This was the scenario before the creation of the Mid west region from the former Western region.
During the second republic, the then Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN, was able to secure the support and votes of the then Bendel state created out of the Midwest region.
With the coming of the fourth republic, the former mid west region which comprises Edo and Delta state was dominated by the two dominant parties, the All Progressives Congress, APC and the People’s Democratic Party, PDP.
However, in the last twenty-four years, Delta state has been ruled by the PDP, while Edo state has been alternating between APC and PDP.
Today, the two states, Edo and Delta are firmly in the hands of the PDP.
However, the emergence of Adams Oshiomhole, a former governor as a Senator from Edo state is an indication that parts of the state is still favourably disposed towards APC and also makes Tinubu’s job easier since the former labour leader will definitely support policies of Tinubu.
However, the success of the APC in Rivers state where Tinubu as presidential candidate won with 231,591 votes to Peter Obi of Labour Party 175,071 votes and Atiku’s 88,468 votes is a significant switch of voters and people of the state to the progressive camp as against what it has been since the first republic.
That Nyesome Wike, the state governor was able to put his words into action by swinging the voters to the left of the centre is an indication of a paradigm shift is all possible in the South South region.
Also important and significant is the capacity of Wike who was able to align with other three governors of ,Seyi Makinde, of Oyo state, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia state is an indication that his relevance in the region is not in doubt.
Again, his grand reception for Tinubu and declaration of public holiday when the later paid a two day visit to the state to commission projects is a further indication that politics of South South region may never be the same again.
This is important in view of Wike’s declaration and affirmation through victory that his reasons for withdrawing support for his party’s candidate, Abubakar Atiku is to support Southern candidate.
That Tinubu has won the election with the support of Wike is an indication that the region has shifted political allegiance.
Another point worthy of note is that the action of Wike who successfully ensured his candidate in the PDP won election as his successor is a pointer to continuation of his politics as today’s godfather in Rivers.
It is also more important for Tinubu because he has been able to replace loyalty of his co contestant in APC, former Transport Minister, Rotimi Amaechi, whose cold attitude towards his election is apparent.
However, Tinubu will have to balance his relationship with that of his party men led by Tonye Cole, who was the APC candidate who lost to Wike’s, Fubara.
Cole poled 95,274 votes coming a distant second to Sim Fubara of PDP who polled 302,614 votes to emerge winner.
Like in Oyo state where Makinde was able to rally support for Tinubu while also retaining his own seat in PDP during governorship election, Wike practically ate his cake and also have it with the victory of his surrogate in governorship poll.
Considering that no politician like to loose any supporter, Tinubu will still have to court Cole whose supporters boycotted his two days visit to Rivers and even disassociated the party from the visit.
While Wike got the party to support Tinubu, the later also has to get the support of his state chapter except if he wants PDP to continue ruling Rivers.
It means in effect that should there be any future disagreement with Wike, which is not impossible, then he stands to loose Rivers during his second term.
Should in case Wike through a likely patronage thrown at him in the Tinubu government decide to decamp to APC, then the struggle as to who controls the party in the state will be fought between Wike and APC supporters led by Amaechi and Cole.
But can Tinubu afford a divided state giving the violent nature of Rivers politics as demonstrated during the 2019 and 2023 elections?
Another factor worthy of note is the presence of 41 senators of APC, PDP, Youth Progressives Party, YPP who accompanied Godswill Akpabio, a former governor of Akwa Ibom state who secured 99,830 votes to secure 27.61% for Tinubu in the presidential election and also won his reelection bid to the state.
The presence of his supporters in the Senate who accompanied him to Rivers confirms his strong presence in the race .
What is more, that Tinubu called upon him to make a speech, is an indication of support unlike President Muhammadu Buhari who remained aloof during the struggle for Senate Presidency in 2015 and which emergence of Senator Bukola Saraki, as Senate President .
As a later day decampe from PDP, this caused instability in his government.
Akpabio’s presence in Rivers is significant because having won a reelection as a Senator on APC, platform his ability to mobilise other Senators from other parties is an indication of his support from his state and across the board other political parties.
It is clear as crystal ball that this show of support for Akpabio is enough for Tinubu who needed a strong man in the Senate to ensure stability in his government .
If Akpabio emerges as Senate President ,it means that what Tinubu has lost in South East, he has gained in South South who are apparently not ready to be in opposition at the centre and by inference Nigeria’s politics.
Akpabio’s preference for the seat is also predicated on weak position of former Abia state governor Orji Uzor Kalu, also a ranking Senator but who only manage to secure 2,164 votes for Tinubu in the same state where he got 30,805 votes to win reelection as a senator.
Since politics is a game of numbers, it is very much in doubt whether Tinubu will prefer a candidate who has no control of his region to another who has support of the people and able to swing more votes for him coupled with backing of key political figures in his region .
